Kotak Mahindra Bank near term Outlook

Kotak Mahindra Bank has  rallied from 520 to 695 odd levels broken down below support levels. The bearish dual triangular pattern formation breakdown in the entity is seen. The key near term resistance for the counter is seen at 650 - 660. According to our view traders can use the rise to sell the stock for targets of    6 _ _ and _ _ _ with stop loss of 672 odd levels.

Kotak Mahindra Bank Daily Chart

                                                Kotak Mahindra Bank Weekly chart

The charts displayed above are daily and weekly chart for the stock both confirming the bearish divergence in price and technical indicators is well. The weekly close below 660 - 650 will reaffirm the strong sell for the entity.



Raju V Angadi
 Equity Research Analyst

To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

IT sector outlook for near term

CNX IT has rallied from 6000 - 7400 odd levels in this year. It is forming a small topping out pattern in the form of bearish triangle. The correction can be expected in near term with the bearish divergence in price and technical indicators. A minor distribution pattern is seen in the index as well as major stocks.

                                                         CNX IT Daily chart


It is advisable for long traders or investors to exit long positions and wait for dips in the stocks and index. After a long rally one can exit with stellar profits. The short term traders can initiate short positions in the index below 7100 with targets of 6700 odd levels in short term.

HCL Technologies

HCL saw a distribution around 800 odd levels. It will not be able to sustain higher levels. One can short with a closing stop of 810 odd levels with targets of 772 below can see lower levels of 7 _ _.

                                                HCL Techologies Daily chart

Infosys

Infosys rallied from 2250 - 3000 levels after 3rd quarter results now forming a minor top. It is formed a bearish engulfing kind of a pattern. On upper side 2912 can act as a immediate resistance and 2750 - 2800 as a strong support levels. Although the stock looks bearish in near term but there are strong support zone as mentioned on 2750 - 2800 and resistance at 2900. The break below can create further inroads in the counter. So stock can trade in the range of 2750 - 2900 in the near term.

                                                        Infosys Daily Chart
                                           

TCS

TCS is performing same as the CNX IT index. The counter is in the verge of a bearish triangle breakdown. The break below 15 _ _ can test 15 _ _ and 14 _ _. As we have suggested in our previous blog to exit long positions in TCS around 1580 - 1590 odd levels. Its better to avoid than going short on the counter before breakdown is confirmed.

                                                          TCS Daily chart

For more detailed update on TCS can visit our previous blog.

 http://stbta.blogspot.in/2013/03/tcs-short-term-investors-can-exit.html


Raju V Angadi
 Equity Research Analyst
 Fortuna Financial Boutique (FFB)
 Bangalore, India.

To know more about probable counts contact us back of http://fortunfin.com/contact-us or e-mail us on research@fortunfin.com.

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

HDFC Bank Analysis

HDFC Bank has been under performing NIFTY in this year 2013 i.e., from past three months. It is showing clear signs of topping out pattern in intermediate term.

                                                   HDFC Bank v/s NIFTY ratio Analysis

- HDFC Bank colored in yellow
- NIFTY colored in blue

The ratio analysis indicates clear under performance in the entity when compared Index (NIFTY). The stock results for the last quarter were below street expectations that has shown the fundamental weakness is well.

HDFC Bank Daily chart

The daily chart for the counter showing lower tops and lower bottom with an indication of stock in a intermediate downtrend. The formation of bearish triangular formation is on the verge of a break down in the entity with distribution happening and an evening star candlestick pattern formation in daily charts. Along with it the price trending downwards technical indicators are having negative divergences is well. An increase in volume on the downward direction can lead the stock towards lower targets.

                                         Fig. 1:  HDFC Bank Daily Chart Fibonacci Counts

Fig. 2: HDFC Bank Daily Chart Fibonacci Counts

The counter gave a short covering rally from 616 - 660 odd levels. The short term fibonacci counts displaying it has retraced from 50% (Which acted as resistance) of the downtrend channel of Rs. 705.60 - 616 as shown in Fig. 1.  

If the entity trends downside the targets which it can retrace can be as much as _ _. _% as shown in Fig.2. 

HDFC Bank Weekly Chart

The weekly chart in the entity also suggesting the weakness with the verge of a trendline breakdown and also in the process of a bearish triangular pattern formation. So the confirmation on daily and weekly charts along with ratio analysis with the Index stock looks technically weaker and expected to under perform in near term.

So long term investors can exit the counter and can enter at much lower levels along with confirmation on long side. The downside breakdown in the stock can take it towards 608 and 5 _ _ odd levels.

Short traders can take a positional short in the counter around 650 - 665 odd levels with a stop loss above 690 on closing basis for targets of 608 and 5 _ _.

 Raju V Angadi
 Equity Research Analyst

To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Breakout in Hexaware technologies

Hexaware technologies has given a breakout from ascending triangle. The stock is on a bullish bias from past few trading sessions.

                                                    Hexaware Technologies Daily chart

The CNX IT has rallied a lot and has been consolidating from past 3-4 trading sessions. So dips in the counter can be used to accumulate around Rs. 87 - 90 odd levels with sl below Rs. 84 for targets Rs. 96 - 100 - 112.

                                              Hexaware Technologies Weekly chart

The weekly chart also confirming the bullish signals on the counter. The weekly close above can lead the stock rally towards 100 - 110 odd levels in coming days.

Raju V Angadi
 Equity Research Analyst

To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com.

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Opto Circuits Short covering can be seen (update)

Our recommendation to buy opto circuits was around 51 odd levels on 7th March 2013 in 3 trading sessions stock has reached our first targets of 60 and close above it can lead to more short covering in the entity.

The return of 15% in the counter as expected. So one can realize the 50% of the profits and can ride further with a stop loss of 55 for targets of 66 from current levels in the stock.

Opto Circuits Short covering can be seen

The stock has been battered from 225 odd levels (01/2012) to the 43.20 odd levels. Accumulation is seen around 50 odd levels in the past few trading sessions. One can by the counter around current levels (51 - 53) with a stop loss of 48. The stock can rally towards 59 - 60 odd levels in the coming days and more short covering can lead the stock towards 66.

 Opto Circuits Daily chart

Watch out can make a profits of 12 - 15% in a short span. Technically accumulation in the counter is seen from past few sessions any increase in volumes on a upper side can be used to accumulate the stock as it is in the oversold zone.

Raju V Angadi
 Equity Research Analyst
 Fortuna Financial Boutique (FFB)
 Bangalore, India.

To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com.

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

TCS short term investors can exit

Tata Consultancy Services has given a stellar rally from 1197 which formed a bullish H & S pattern giving a breakout above 1310 to 1590 odd levels. It has taken a strong support @ 1200 and have risen about 33% from the levels. 

                                                                    TCS Daily chart

It has a fibonacci retracements of 1.618 at Rs. 1590 spot price.  The cross over above 1600 stock can rally up to 1630 odd levels.

But profit booking can be seen in the counter in coming days from around 1600 odd levels. Although technical indicators have not yet confirmed sell signal for the counter decreasing volume on rise is not a good sign. Its a contrarian opinion short term traders and investors as they can book the profits with substantial gains for safer exit. 

Raju V Angadi
 Equity Research Analyst

To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com.

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Bank NIFTY outlook for near term update

Bank NIFTY after RBI policy action stumbled towards 11400 odd levels and closed around 11508. Our view on to sell BANK Nifty around 12000 - 12150 with targets of 11500 achieved. The breakdown below can create blood bath in the index for much lower levels as suggested in our previous updates on the same. 

Bank NIFTY daily chart

Although RBI reduced repo rates by 25bps, the Banking index stumbled down with a free fall after policy. So one needs to trade objectively rather than subjectively with appropriate price action, technicals and sentiments according to us.

Raju V Angadi

 Equity Research Analyst

 Fortuna Financial Boutique (FFB)

 Bangalore, India.

To know more about probable counts contact us back of http://fortunfin.com/contact-us or e-mail us on research@fortunfin.com.

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Bank NIFTY closed around 11823 today. We suggested 12150 as the top for the rally from 11487. It reached 12165 making an intraday high of 1241.30 on Monday (11/03/2013). So again the downtrend has started in BANK Nifty Index after a short covering rally wait and watch for much lower levels till Friday (15/10/2013). 

BANK Nifty Daily chart (Update)

So cautious traders can book the profits by this weekend as the RBI policy meet is on 19th March 2013 on coming Tuesday. Later on after policy action again can re-initiate positions. Based on the CPI Index data the chances of repo rate cut by RBI governor are looking bleak. Even though the improvement in IIP data figures released on yesterday which was 2.4 v/s -0.4. The key events to watch out for RBI action would be inflation data of FEB - MARCH 2013 to be released on Thursday (14/03/2013).     

Technical outlook for Bank NIFTY suggesting much lower levels If broken below 11500 levels. Our advise would be trade safely with trailing stop loss those who have shorted at 12200 levels and enjoy profits.

Raju V Angadi

 Equity Research Analyst

 Fortuna Financial Boutique (FFB)

 Bangalore, India.

To know more about probable counts contact us back of http://fortunfin.com/contact-us or e-mail us on research@fortunfin.com.

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Bank NIFTY has fallen from top of 12722 to 11487 around 10% correction from high on closing basis and is bouncing back towards 12000 odd levels. 

Bank NIFTY Daily chart with Fibonacci retracements

The daily chart has taken the support of 11500 levels where it consolidated for 2 months from 01/10/2012 - 01/12/2012. In the short term 12000 - 12150 can act as a resistance levels which is 23.6% retracement is well.

Bank NIFTY weekly chart

Again weekly charts of Bank NIFTY also suggested the same 11500 as support levels which it bounced from to the current levels. The bounce can be short lived as it can be a short covering rally, If 12000 - 12150 finds a stiff resistance zone and reversal takes place the targets for the index on lower side can be much lower as much as 10 _ _ _ once broken below 11500.

So it is advisable to go short on every rise with a strict stop loss of 12220 for targets of 11500 odd levels If breaks below much lower targets can be seen or else for long traders better to avoid longs at present and watch for a breakout above 12200 for confirmation.  

Raju V Angadi
 Equity Research Analyst

To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Currency Report (7/03/2013)

Fortuna Financial Boutique (FFB)

USDINR: Daily View  (07/03/2012)

Divergence Right Shoulder of H&S Formation: Panic Button below 54.9200

The above chart showing 15-Minutes chart data movements on continuation basis and according that we found a strong probability of H&S formation. We believe that if USDINR break the current support line of 54.9200, which is also standing as a Neckline of the formation, we could get at least 0.70 points movements at downside. Technically the price oscillating around 50MEMA since last few sessions and trying hard to sustain its on going rally, however, it’s really looks tough for bulls to carry over long momentum above the Divergence level of 55.10 and Resistance line at 55.25 zone.

Two important indicators, Stochastic and RSI, also showing higher chances for divergence because RSI loosing strength from 70 mark and Stochastic too. We are expecting that if price break the Neckline level at 54.92 level then massive selling pressure will definitely disturb the current rally. For tomorrow we have to important levels, one is if open below 55.00 level then wait for half an hour for fresh long. However, long below 54.92 level not advisable here. Second, if price open above 55.10 divergence rate, Keep long side with 55.00 Stop Loss

Trades for Intraday: As we mentioned above, price below 55.00 – 54.92 territory looks hard road for bulls hence avoid long between 55.00-54.92 range. Even one can take small risk and short below 55.00 with Stop loss at 55.10 for Target of 54.92 & 54.8375 levels. We strongly recommend Long only above 55.10 for 55.25 & 55.3550 zone.

EURINR Daily View

Descending Triangle at extreme right side: Grand Support at 71.5200

EURINR also looking on extreme side of volatility and we are expecting a major support at 71.5200 level. We are putting more weight on this level because it suggests horizontal support base if Descending Triangle formation. Since last few sessions the price oscillating around 50MEMA line and showing sideway price movements. Technically whenever asset pricing inside the sideway structure and major volatile move unfold. As per technical structure and guidance of Descending formation we can expect extreme selling pressure below 71.5200 zone.

However, talking about downside breakout below 71.5200 is too early to be sure because it’s just 4^th leg of Triangle and 5^th should be higher side after testing 71.52 level. We are expecting that if price test 71.5200 and rebound sharply then it could further test 71.90 level in day one or two. In short, we have two level, one is 71.52 and second is 71.90. We may see high volatile sessions once this range breaks either side.

Trades for Intraday: For intraday traders, 71.5200 level looks important for support side and if any opening below 71.56 then avoid fresh long because any down side opening may put some pressure for 71.52 support and break anytime. Well, we will send you a confirm level for trades after opening the price of EURINR after opening bell.

 Bhaskar R
 Currency and Commodities Technical Analyst

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Financial Technologies can see short covering

Financial Technologies has corrected from 1200 to 800 odd levels which is almost 33% correction. The stock has fallen in corrective waves.



                                                   Financial Technologies Daily chart

The daily charts shows over sold zone for the entity. The RSI and MACD shows the oversold levels. Can the short covering of 8 - 10% to be expected on the stock in coming sessions.

                              Financial Technologies Fibonacci retracements on Daily Chart

The Fibonacci retracements of 61.8% of a rally is around 800 levels. Last trading session stock has made a low of 802.70 and a bounce back can be expected on the counter from current levels.

Financial Technologies Weekly chart

The weekly charts also confirming the support zone to 800 odd levels. So 790 - 800 can act as as strong support area wherein from there 8 - 10% move on stock can be expected on the verge of short covering rally towards 870 - 880 odd levels. 

The break down below 790 in worst case scenario can take the further downside towards 7 _ _ and 6 _ _.

To know more about probable counts contact us back of http://fortunfin.com/contact-us.

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets. 

HCL tech can correct in near term

HCL Technologies has shown negative divergence in price, short term EMA, MACD and RSI. The price can correct up to 702 - 686 - 660.

The stock price has been trending upwards from 480 odd levels. No major correction has been seen in the stock till now. The distribution has been seen in past 3 - 4 trading sessions with confirmation of volume on the downside can see the stock correct towards 660 odd levels.

To know more about probable counts contact us back of http://fortunfin.com/contact-us.


Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets. 

Negative Divergence seen in Idea cellular

Idea cellular charts showing negative divergence. It has rallied all the way from Rs. 75 to Rs. 122.55. The technical indicators along with the price showing negative divergence. So the correction in the stock can be expected.

 It is showing a clear signs of distribution and a short term trend line has broken. In the near term stock can correct up to as much as 96, If the stock goes under a steep correction. The key support zones to watch out for the stock include: 110, 105 and 96. It has a resistance of 116.80 and 120.

To know more about probable counts contact us back of http://fortunfin.com/contact-us.


Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.