Finolex Industries in a defined uptrend

Finolex industries around 60 and has started a 5 - wave structure in the form of wave 1 and has moved up to test 140 then further in the form of wave 2 has retraced towards 100. Now the trend has started in the form of longest wave i.e., wave 3 of 5 wave sequence. The confirmation of wave 3 was above 140.

Daily Chart

The stock is clearly in a defined uptrend CMP 167. So its recommended accumulating the counter from current levels up to 152 on dips with a stop loss of below 140 on closing basis for targets of 180 / 210 / 225 in medium term (6 - 15 months period) as 25 - 30% returns can be expected. 

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts analysis on NIFTY, BANK NIFTY and CNX IT along with 5 stocks for the month check out our newsletters and advisory services contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com (OR) swing research5@gmail.com (OR) +91 78291 55900

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So considering all the scenarios in case and to be one of those in the direction of the next major trend.         

To swing your fortune higher join us and be ahead to track market turns ....

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in markets

NIFTY : Trend analysis with combination of leading and lagging indicators

The early trend identification is pivotal to set-up trade/investment. As there is a saying 'Early Bird always gets the Fish'. There are various leading and lagging indicators to identify the trends. This article combines both leading and lagging indicators to analyse CNX NIFTY with an intent to provide educational idea for investors/traders. 

We believe in sharing knowledge as "No one can teach anybody anything, Only one can just help him/her to discover it within themselves"..

NIFTY Weekly Chart

NIFTY on the weekly chart has formed an expanding triangle indicating the expansion of trading range. The index has touched the top end of the expanding channel perfectly and has started its next major move.

NIFTY Elliot wave Daily chart

NIFTY has perfectly move as per Elliot wave theory and Fibonacci time series as it touched the upper band of the expanding triangle completed its 5th impulse wave to 6342.95. Then started its corrective move and corrected for 8 trading sessions. Further moved contra trend for 3 trading sessions retracing exactly 61.8% corrective wave (a) as wave (b) till 6203 faster than wave (a) indicating clear short covering move. The fibonacci time series along with the move of wave (a) and (b) retraced perfectly.

Scenario 1: Now the corrective (C) wave has started which can correct up to 5 _ _ _. If considered the principal of equality. 

Scenario 2: If the wave (C) retraces 1.382% of wave (a) then Index would move to _ _ _ _.

Scenario 3: If wave (C) has to retrace wave (a) 1.618 times then the move would be up to _ _ _ _.

Now we combine simple trendlines, candlestick patterns, DOW concepts, price patterns and technical indicators to sync with complex elliot to identify the reversal. CNX NIFTY has formed a Tweezer bottom @ 5972 which becomes a vital support for immediate near term. 

NIFTY Daily Chart

After touch the upper end of the expanding triangle on weekly charts @ 6342.95, NIFTY has formed a gap  down from 6311 & 6304 on daily charts and closing near the low point of the day around 6253 (5/11/13) indicating a first bearish sign for coming days and then fell down to 5972 which is the significant support area 5970 - 5980. 

The classical short covering bounce occurred later for 3 trading sessions testing 6200 odd levels retracing 61.8% fall from 6342 - 5972 as shown in the Daily chart above. Then the index formed an evening star candlestick pattern confirming the lower top and moved down to 5972.80 precisely held the support area. 

Now, If NIFTY holds 5972 would enter into a trading range of 5972 - 6122. Below 5972, a descending triangle formation will confirm and the pattern targets would sync exactly with Scenario 3 as discussed above. The upside reversal triggers becomes > 6150 on closing basis.

The Scenario 1 targets almost sync with 200 EMA, which is 5_ _ _ . A negative divergence in RSI was a day earlier than MACD. When the prices gaped down on daily charts and closed near days low indicated bearishness and signs of trend reversal as shown in daily charts and discussed above.

Resistance :   6050/ 6094/ 6125/ 6210
Support     :   5972/ 5_ _ _/ 5 _ _ _/ 5 _ _ _

Some counts have been intentionally omitted from this research article. Our paid subscribers have received the reports in the early stages of the trend reversal. 

Thus, we conclude with the utilization & application of combination of leading and lagging indicators along with the price action, the appropriateness in predicting the trend reversal can be significantly improved for short, medium and long term. 

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts analysis on NIFTY, BANK NIFTY and CNX IT along with 5 stocks for the month check out our newsletters and advisory services contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com (OR) swing research5@gmail.com (OR) +91 78291 55900

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So considering all the scenarios in case and to be one of those in the direction of the next major trend.         

To swing your fortune higher join us and be ahead to track market turns ....

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in markets

Is Descending triangle forming in HCL technologies & If confirms its implications ?

HCL Technologies Daily Chart

·         HCL Technologies has formed a classical lower top formation and a distribution is seen is well

·         With 1100 acting as a stiff resistance for the counter, it’s in the process of forming a descending triangle below 1040

·          It’s advisable to avoid long positions in the stock until 1121 is crossed decisively on closing basis

·         The shorts can be built on the counter around 1090 – 1100 and below 1078 for initial targets of 1045

·       Below 1040 stock can completely move into a bear grip and the descending triangle targets would be 905

·    The key supports for the counter is around 1077 (50 DMA), 1040, 1000 (100 EMA) and 950 on downside and the resistance levels are 1100/ 1112/ 1121.

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts analysis on NIFTY, BANK NIFTY and CNX IT along with 5 stocks for the month check out our newsletters and advisory services contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com or swing research5@gmail.com or +91 78291 55900

.

To swing your fortune higher join us and be ahead to track market turns ....

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in markets

CNX Pharma can correct in near term

                                                   CNX Pharma Daily chart

After being resilient and outperformer, there is a descending triangle breakdown in CNX Pharma neckline around 7522.80 witnessing a correction CMP 7435 on daily charts. The corrective targets for the index can be around 7200 odd levels and the next support for the index is around 7000. 

The index has also broken 20 EMA indicating bearishness for near term.

It is advisable for long traders to avoid long positions in the pharma stocks in near term and short traders can short on rise.

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts analysis on NIFTY, BANK NIFTY and CNX IT along with 5 stocks for the month check out our newsletters and advisory services contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com or swing research5@gmail.com or +91 78291 55900

.

To swing your fortune higher join us and be ahead to track market turns ....

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in markets

Canara Bank charts suggests Bullish in near term

Canara Bank Daily Chart

·     Canara Bank after a long down trend (454 - 190) from May ‘ 13 has broken out of the downward trendline and building a base for the move on the upside.

·         Technically has crossed 50 DMA of 223 is indicating the positive trend for short term in the counter

·         The stock might test upto 250 from current levels  above 278 odd levels (100 EMA)

·         It is advisable to accumulate the stock from current levels and on dips up to 225

View           :    Bullish for short term

CMP            :   Rs. 232

Target         :   250 above 275/290

Stop Loss    :   216 on closing basis

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts analysis on NIFTY, BANK NIFTY and CNX IT along with 5 stocks for the month check out our newsletters and advisory services contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com or swing research5@gmail.com or +91 78291 55900

.

To swing your fortune higher join us and be ahead to track market turns ....

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in markets

Is Sintex Industries set for a rally after good results ?

Sintex Industries has broken out from the inverted H & S pattern above 25. The counter posted good results for the quarter is well.

                                                   Sintex Industries Daily Charts

Dips can be used to accumulate the entity for higher targets 30/33.40/40 with stop loss of 23.50.

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts analysis on NIFTY, BANK NIFTY and CNX IT along with 5 stocks for the month check out our newsletters and advisory services contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com or swing research5@gmail.com or +91 78291 55900

.

To swing your fortune higher join us and be ahead to track market turns ....

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

NIFTY trading using Gaps and Patterns - Near term outlook

The classical basics of technical analysis concepts still do add value if one is grounded and have discipline in their investments or trading.

The NIFTY took a support at 5100 - 5150 odd levels and bounced from intraday lows and closed @ 5285. From 5118 CNX NIFTY has moved to 6142 odd levels. In the process perfectly 3 gaps occurred: A Breakaway Gap (BG), Runaway Gap (RG) and finally an Exhaustion Gap (EG), which occurred on the day which US federal reserve delayed tapering of Quantitative easing (QE) on 19th September 2013 by reaching above 6100 which was also an inverted H & S  pattern targets as shown in the chart below. 

The day after 20th September 2013 the gap was closed confirming an Exhaustion gap. Another big event triggered the end of the rally as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increasing the repo rates.

                                                                NIFTY Daily Chart

Now NIFTY is on the verge of a breakdown of Head an shoulders pattern below 5800 and the chart structure looks bleak and bearish for near term with lower targets of 5740 below 5688 - 5600 - 5500.

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts analysis on NIFTY, BANK NIFTY and CNX IT along with 5 stocks for the month check out our newsletters and advisory services contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com or swing research5@gmail.com or +91 78291 55900

.

To swing your fortune higher join us and be ahead to track market turns ....

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Trading Plan for Professional Traders

Money Management - Trading capital - 1 Crore (example) 

Instruments - Equity derivatives 70 % / Commodity 30% ( 0 in equity .. don't have dmat account)

Systems in each - Trend following 50 % / View Based 20% / Options 20%

Exposure maximum - 3 Times (not as per span margin of exchanges)

trend following tools - Simple Price action / Moving Average / Renko Charts
View based - candlestick (price) / Fibonacci (sup /resis), Rsi (momentum) / Bollinger (volatility).
Options tools - RSI / BB / ADX (no open interest / no put call ratio / no greeks )
Max Drawdown on whole capital - 15% .. once hit then exit all positions market ..
Types of Stop loss - Initial Stop / Trailing Stop and Time Stop
Per Trade stop / Per instrument stop ..
Journal Each Trade with detailed reasons ..
Review of journal every 20 trades..
trading break after every 3 months mandatory ..
break after huge winning streak - to avoid overconfidence
break after huge losing streak - to get confidence ..

Approach - Top down -
on weekend - scan all sectors ... then all stocks from derivatives - make list of strong stocks for buy and list of weak stocks for sell -
filter them to max 5 in each ..
trade max 6 positions at any point of time ...
By,
Vishal malkan

The summary of this is trading plan is to educate professional traders which most of them misinterpret in the process making their life miserable and complicate due to lack of discipline, money management and trade management techniques and finally lose even after rigorous research and analysis.
- Trade with a simple plan
These is just a trading plan in general. So one can articulate his/her own plan based on their mentality and suitability accordingly. To successfully trade in any instruments.

- Set realistic goals

- know how much max. you are entitled to loose before entering the trade (Risk - Reward)

- Diversify your investments

- Patience

- preservation of your capital

- Doing through analysis and knowing what you are doing 

- Never over size your positions - position seizing 

- Application of simple tools either techincals or fundamentals

- Assessment/Review of trades/investments 

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To learn more about investing/trading in financial markets contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com or swing.research5@gmail.com or +91 78291 55900 

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

NIFTY outlook for near term

NIFTY has rallied on the verge of short covering and some positive measures new RBI governor from the lows of 5118 - 5900 odd levels. The Index has rallied more than 750 points in 9 trading sessions. 

Nifty 76.4% retracement of the fall from 6093 - 5118 is around 5860 - 65 which can act as immediate resistance for the index now. As there is not much positive triggers to boost the rally further . Today although index has rallied around 220 points on the ease of tensions in Syria choppiness can be seen in near term. 

                                                                  NIFTY Daily chart

Is there more steam left in the rally? The market is anticipated turn choppy from current levels. So short term traders in NIFTY those of who have missed the rally its advised to avoid fresh long at current levels as risk/reward is not favorable. One is also advised to pick individual stocks on dips. Avoid public sector banking and pharma sectors.

 The long traders are advised to book part profits around current levels and revise stop loss of of 5750 above 5865 on closing basis consistently can lead to 5980 - 6000 above - 6080. The positional short traders can initiate short positions from current levels around 5880 - 5900 up to 5950 with stop loss of 6025 for targets of 5730 - 5610.  

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com or swing.research5@gmail.com or +91 78291 55900

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Bank NIFTY Outlook (Update)

The Bankex roars 6% today on the statement of RBI measures to ease liquidity from yesterday low of 8855 to 9799 odd levels. There was a technical short covering due at the support zone and the news sync in. The index has provided stellar of a returns of around 8 - 10% in two trading sessions It is advisable to book part profits for the long position holders and revise stop loss to 9500 for targets of 10000.

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com 

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

The Bank NIFTY has fallen from highs of 13414 to 9100 odd levels almost 33% wiped out in one the Asia's widely traded indices. The bears have butchered the index. The USDINR hitting all time low of 63.18 and an Reserve bank of India's measures to control dollar demand has also failed, which is not a good sign for interest rate sensitives such as mainly INFRA, REALITY and BANKEX. Fundamentally slower GDP growth around 5% odd levels, high dollar, more imports and higher crude oil prices are impacting the Indian economy.

                                                             BANK NIFTY Daily Chart

Technically Bank NIFTY has breached the long term trend line around 10200 - 10220 odd levels of a move from 3400 - 13400 odd levels. Overall in medium to long term looks much more downside is ahead for the BANKEX. A medium to long term outlook for the index is bearish below 8000 odd levels.

                                                   BANK NIFTY Daily Chart

The key levels to watch out for the index is 8950 - 9100, as  9098 is also a 76.4% fibonacci retracement of a move from 7766 - 13414, which can act as a short term support and a short covering index can be seen up to 9500/ 10000 odd levels . One can build contrary trades on the indices with stop loss below 8800 for targets of 9500 and 10000. Technically a short covering bounce of 6 - 8% can be seen in the index If the support are held as the indices is in the oversold arena.

The heavy weights in the indices are ICICI Bank, HDFC, HDFC Bank, AXIS Bank and SBI.

HDFC Limited

                                                       HDFC Daily Chart

                                                       HDFC Daily Chart

HDFC has fallen from 930 - 710 odd levels the key support for the counter is around 684 / 710. The 76.4% retracement also for the entity of a move from 640 - 930 odd levels is around 680.

On weekly charts also HDFC is showing a fair support around 690 - 700 odd levels.

It is advisable that one can accumulate the counter around 685 - 710 for  targets of 750.

ICICI BANK

                                            ICICI BANK Weekly Chart

ICICI Bank has been battered from 1230 - 815 odd levels which is almost 33% fall from highs nearing its support area. One can consider buying the counter around 785 - 800 for targets of 875 with a stop loss below 770 as risk reward is favorable. 

AXIS Bank

                                                        Axis Bank Daily Chart

Axis Bank has from 1530 - 990 odd levels, which is having a strong support around range of 950 - 965. The entity can bounce back towards 1100 odd levels which is 61.8% retracement of a move from 784 - 1550. So one can accumulate the counter around 950 - 960 for a short term bounce with stop loss below 930. 

Yes Bank

                                                              Yes Bank Daily chart

Yes Bank has fallen more than 50% from 500 - 240 odd levels. One can accumulate the stock around 225 - 230 odd levels with a stop of 210 for targets of 250/280. The 61.8% retracement of the move from 40 to 550. The stock can hold the support of 225 - 230 and a short covering of 10 - 15% in the entity can be seen. Above 250 levels of 285+ can be witnessed in the counter.

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com 

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Numbers talk - But Only Facts

There is always been a tug-of-war of which one is superior between fundamental v/s technical analysis. This is one of the classical examples of differentiation between anticipation and facts. 

CNX Pharma Index Outlook

CNX Pharma has rallied from 4400 - 7200 odd levels in past 3 years and has relatively out performed the benchmark indices CNX NIFTY.

                                         
                                           CNX Pharma v/s CNX NIFTY ratio Analysis

                                                         CNX Pharma Daily chart

In past 20 trading session index has rallied from 6400 - 7300 odd levels. Almost a 15% rally in the index. From past few trading sessions index is indicating a distribution pattern also same is witnessed in the major stocks. A divergence in the short term EMA's along with the negative divergence in MACD and price distribution is witnessed on the index. Fundamentally also most of the stocks in the index are over priced compartively to thier P/E's. So a healthy retracement of 8 - 10% can be seen in an healthcare index on a break below 7200 odd levels to 6800 break below can lead to further downside which is of still far as of now.

Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy Laboratories, Cipla and Lupin are the major counters in the index market cap wise. Most of these entities are showing signs of exhaustion at higher levels.

                                                 Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Daily Chart

A 33% rally from 1766 - 2350 in Dr. Reddy labs from past 4 months is seen. Dr. Reddy Laboratories has formed a twezeer top formations on daily candlestick charts and unable to cross 2350 on closing basis from past 7 trading sessions is showing signs of exhaustion.

A sign of weakness is indicated by inability to cross higher channels of bollinger bands, MACD and RSI divergence and distribution pattern. So Long traders can exit their longs at current levels and enter and lower levels. One can short the counter from current levels up to 2380 odd levels with an sl of 2410 for targets of 2200. A close below 2300 will confirm more downside in the entity.

Key support and resistance to watch out for the stock:

Support - 2302/ 2200/ 2100

Resistance - 2350/ 2365/ 2400

                                                     Sun Pharma Daily Chart

Sun Pharma also in a distribution phase has rallied from 400 - 1130  odd levels in past 3 odd years. the stock has been one of the  out performers. A break of short term trendline has confirmed atleast an intermediate correction or profit booking in process. Investors in the entity can book profits and come out of the stock at current levels to enter at lower levels.  The technical indicators are also showing weakness, inability to cross the higher channel of bollinger bands, MACD and RSI divergence along with price confirmation below 1100 will ignite the downside move. So short traders can short the stock at current levels up to 1110 levels.

Support - 1000/ 940

Resistance - 1110/ 1148

                                                       Lupin Daily Chart

Lupin has rallied from 600 - 900 odd levels in 89 trading sessions a fibonacci series completing the up move. The stock has given a return of 50%  in past 4.5 months. A negative divergence in RSI , MACD, unable to cross higher end of bollinger band channel and distribution in price an healthy correction is anticipated on the verge of booking profits. So investors can book profits and enter at lower levels. short traders can short the stock around 895 - 898 odd levels with stop loss of 911 for targets of 850 and 800.

Support - 850/ 800

Resistance - 898/ 910

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com 

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.

Bank Nifty Analysis

Bank NIFTY has completed 5 impulse wave upward move from 7900 - 13400 odd levels. The corrective wave has started from 13400 odd levels and have completed it now after a wave B upward move in corrective wave sequence has started wave C of correction from 11700 odd levels.

Bank NIFTY Daily Chart Elliot wave Analysis

                                                  Bank NIFTY Daily Fibonacci Chart

                                               

                                                      Bank NIFTY Weekly chart

Considering the principle of equality wave A & C the correction of wave C can be up to 9600 - 9800 odd levels in the index.

The index today it has touched a intraday high of 112340 which is 38.2% retracement of a move from 7900 - 13400 odd levels. The key resistance for the index can be around 11460 - 11620 odd levels. The bankex stocks charts included in the indices are also relatively weaker. So its advisable for traders to use the rally in the index to short around 11420 - 11700 odd levels with a stop loss of 12000 - 12200 odd levels. The positional shorts can be built on the index for lower targets below 10000.

Below 11000 and 10800 odd levels one can add more shorts in the index for lower targets. Traders are advised to avoid long positions until 11460 - 11620 - 11760 which are key resistances if crossed can move up towards  12000 - 12100 which is also 23.6% retracement on daily charts eventually can drift further towards lower targets.

The CNX NIFTY has formed inverted H & S pattern and have broken out which can test targets of 6280 odd levels. Although Bank NIFTY is relatively weaker waiting for opportunity on rallies and weakness with the confirmation of both indices would be better to short sell at higher levels is advisable.

Trade objectively and wisely with the consideration of own risk with amid volatility. The strategy would be to wait patiently for the right opportunity to unfold to probable profitable trade setups.

Raju V Angadi

 Equity Research Analyst

 To know more about probable counts contact us back on rvangadi@googlemail.com 

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual for educational purpose. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.