Currency Report (7/03/2013)

Fortuna Financial Boutique (FFB)

USDINR: Daily View  (07/03/2012)

Divergence Right Shoulder of H&S Formation: Panic Button below 54.9200

The above chart showing 15-Minutes chart data movements on continuation basis and according that we found a strong probability of H&S formation. We believe that if USDINR break the current support line of 54.9200, which is also standing as a Neckline of the formation, we could get at least 0.70 points movements at downside. Technically the price oscillating around 50MEMA since last few sessions and trying hard to sustain its on going rally, however, it’s really looks tough for bulls to carry over long momentum above the Divergence level of 55.10 and Resistance line at 55.25 zone.

Two important indicators, Stochastic and RSI, also showing higher chances for divergence because RSI loosing strength from 70 mark and Stochastic too. We are expecting that if price break the Neckline level at 54.92 level then massive selling pressure will definitely disturb the current rally. For tomorrow we have to important levels, one is if open below 55.00 level then wait for half an hour for fresh long. However, long below 54.92 level not advisable here. Second, if price open above 55.10 divergence rate, Keep long side with 55.00 Stop Loss

Trades for Intraday: As we mentioned above, price below 55.00 – 54.92 territory looks hard road for bulls hence avoid long between 55.00-54.92 range. Even one can take small risk and short below 55.00 with Stop loss at 55.10 for Target of 54.92 & 54.8375 levels. We strongly recommend Long only above 55.10 for 55.25 & 55.3550 zone.

EURINR Daily View

Descending Triangle at extreme right side: Grand Support at 71.5200

EURINR also looking on extreme side of volatility and we are expecting a major support at 71.5200 level. We are putting more weight on this level because it suggests horizontal support base if Descending Triangle formation. Since last few sessions the price oscillating around 50MEMA line and showing sideway price movements. Technically whenever asset pricing inside the sideway structure and major volatile move unfold. As per technical structure and guidance of Descending formation we can expect extreme selling pressure below 71.5200 zone.

However, talking about downside breakout below 71.5200 is too early to be sure because it’s just 4^th leg of Triangle and 5^th should be higher side after testing 71.52 level. We are expecting that if price test 71.5200 and rebound sharply then it could further test 71.90 level in day one or two. In short, we have two level, one is 71.52 and second is 71.90. We may see high volatile sessions once this range breaks either side.

Trades for Intraday: For intraday traders, 71.5200 level looks important for support side and if any opening below 71.56 then avoid fresh long because any down side opening may put some pressure for 71.52 support and break anytime. Well, we will send you a confirm level for trades after opening the price of EURINR after opening bell.

 Bhaskar R
 Currency and Commodities Technical Analyst

Disclaimer: This is just an view based on the research of individual. So kindly trade along with the consultation of your financial adviser, market trends, price action and own risk appetite considered while investing or trading in stock markets.